What We Learned: Same old Buffalo Sabres?
You don't really want to get into the habit of judging any team based on a two-game sample.
This is the strangest sport ever conceived, and the number of things that can go wrong or right on back-to-back days is huge. For the New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres, you can add transatlantic travel, a mini media tour, the fact that these are their first two games since April, new coaches, and more as further complicating factors.
That said, this was supposed to be the year the Sabres took a step forward, wasn’t it? While they didn’t add much talent this summer, they did make a change behind the bench, signalling that the results of the last few years weren’t acceptable for a team trying to power out of a years-long rebuild. Of course, they’re not spending to the cap either, which has been a source of frustration for Sabres fans and likely for those hoping to see the end of the league’s longest playoff drought. Perhaps the idea was that the maturation of all the players they’ve drafted and developed since the rebuild(s) began would converge and at least boost them into contention for a top-four spot in the Atlantic. But if the first two games of this season are any indication, that’s not happening.
We’ve been told all along that if the team fails in its quest to stop underperforming this year, changes will be coming. I try not to kick this particular team when they’re down — because what’s the point? Even the Columbus Blue Jackets have had more regular-season success in recent years than these guys — but I do wonder when the clock starts ticking on the core of this team and, perhaps more importantly, on its GM.
Kevyn Adams was brought in to a decent amount of derision, but he seemingly acquitted himself well in making a few momentous decisions, like not getting pantsed in the Jack Eichel trade, offloading Rasmus Ristolainen, getting Devon Levi, and hiring Don Granato, among others.
All positive with the exception of Granato, but you’ve got to ask yourself which coaches in the history of the league would have had success with the rosters the Sabres have iced over the last few years, especially in a division featuring four of the top 10 or 12 teams in the league in any given season. The problem for Adams is that he got the teardown part right, but has so far failed in the rebuild aspect of the job. Here too, you have to ask whose decision it was to try to maximize playoff chances before the group was ready, or to do it while sitting on more than $6 million in unused cap space this year. There’s no answer that would surprise you, is there?
So the Sabres are now 0-2-0. They've been outshot 60-49, only registered 42 percent of the expected goals, and got outscored 7-2. Injuries to Zach Benson and JJ Peterka are affecting their top six (and whether those two guys should be top-six pieces on a team saying it has playoff aspirations is another question). There's speculation in the local media that Rasmus Dahlin is already playing hurt. And to be honest, Levi stood on his head for most of Saturday's game before the Devils turned the game into a track meet and pushed the result beyond doubt.
That's what we in the business call a "comprehensive beating," and given the quality of the roster, it feels as though it would take a lot of Levi-standing-on-his-head performances for this club to become truly competitive with the teams expected to be on the playoff bubble. Maybe it's going to take a minute for the roster, which wasn't exactly bolstered this summer, to jell with each other and Lindy Ruff. Maybe the young players at the top of the roster are just working out some kinks through what was an admittedly weird preseason (they went heavy on their NHL lineups against mostly non-NHL lineups early in anticipation of this European work trip, and subsequently went 5-1 before jetting off to Germany and Czechia). And the Sabres of years past have certainly shown they can win a bunch of games in a row at some point before Christmas. But you don't want to be in a position where you need to do that.
Again, it’s only two games, but the people who cover the Sabres for a living are already posting things like “Take some deep breaths” or “Go for a walk” to calm down a fanbase that clearly didn’t expect to get their teeth kicked in by a team that also missed the playoffs last year. It really already feels like the locals are giving up hope, and you can’t blame them.
But even if they go 0-82-0, what changes could anyone make that would satisfy the fans or the organization? The list of even possible changes seems very limited, and reasonable guesses at the outcomes wouldn’t be satisfactory.
Try to shake up the roster? Okay, I don't know who would object to that in theory, but what changes could be made in-season do that wouldn't just be making lateral-ish "hockey trades" or selling off the few useful veterans on the roster, perhaps including Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch, or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen? Any of the latter deals just move the realistic "being competitive" horizon a few years further away. Have to think no one is happy with that outcome. The obvious answer would be to find a time machine and go back and spend all that untapped money this past summer, but even adding a $6-million forward to the mix might not have been enough to push this team to reach the stated goals.
Fire Adams? Doubt many fans would be upset with that, but what would his replacement do in the short term that isn't just "making one or more of the trades I mentioned in the above paragraph?" And again, that's not something that would help them much this season, in their quest to qualify for the postseason for the first time since … oh my god, 2011. He bought out Jeff Skinner (which was defensible) only to leave the cap savings largely untouched, added depth forwards and a new coach to a roster that missed the playoffs by seven points and had three non-playoff teams ahead of them in the standings. It was always tough to be convinced that would solve the organization's problems. And besides, you gotta think it wasn't totally Adams' call to just sit on $6.1 million in cap space for fun heading into this season.
Fire the aforementioned new coach? Sure, but they just brought this one in and the owners probably won't want to pay for multiple guys to not-coach them. Ruff probably wasn't the first choice for many fans given the other coaches who were out of work over the summer, but the idea that any of those guys would have the same effect as, say, Kris Knoblauch did on Edmonton last season would be predicated on the idea that there would be a McDavid-and-Draisaitl combo on the roster just waiting to be unlocked.
So if changing the roster (in a realistic way) or swapping out the coach and/or GM wont change anything this year, what's the point? The owner isn't going to sell, and if you want to say that's where the problems really sit, I won't argue with you.
Maybe none of this matters. It's two games in early October. Maybe they go like 45-27-8 the rest of the way. That at least gets them into the conversation. Stranger things have happened. And for a team that hasn't made the playoffs since Thomas Vanek, whose son I just learned is draft-eligible this season, led the team in scoring, just making the playoffs would of course be a huge positive.
But just getting to 95 points was always going to be difficult, and even that number wouldn’t have guaranteed a playoff berth. Starting 0-2-0 makes it less likely. So does every subsequent loss.
No two games really indicate that the sky is falling, but for a team like the Sabres, it always feels like disaster is lurking around every corner. At some point, promising — or, if you prefer, "threatening" — change loses its meaning. Organizations can’t snap their fingers and magically make themselves competent, let alone competitive. Sabres fans should have realized that maybe two or three years into the current ownership regime. The futile decade since has undoubtedly cemented that view. But right now, all you can do is sit through the next several months and see what happens. Maybe there will be consequences. Maybe those consequences won’t matter any more than when they hired Adams or Granato or anyone else. It’s frustrating, but you’ve just got to wait and see, with a dim view of the future.
That’s what makes it so easy to fall into doom and gloom in the first week of October.
What We Learned
Anaheim Ducks: When you're doing a rebuild, this is the kind of player you need to step up. Your top picks will probably be big contributors. The dark-horse names are gonna drive your success.
Boston Bruins: All that over $250,000 a year? Cool.
Buffalo Sabres: Seems like the biggest add of the summer was indeed the scoreboard.
Calgary Flames: Not great.
Carolina Hurricanes: Answer here seems like "probably yes" but there might not be a lot of margin for error anymore, either.
Chicago: This works out great 100 percent of the time.
Colorado Avalanche: What are the Avs doing with this cap space? Hmm.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Why not give it a whirl?
Dallas Stars: Last year was the second-best regular season in Stars history. Asking for more than 113 points is a tall task.
Detroit Red Wings: Very intriguing, except they just sent him to the AHL.
Edmonton Oilers: "I really thought about it and decided the team I cover is the best one in the league. Crazy coincidence."
Florida Panthers: What else are they gonna say???
Los Angeles Kings: Absolutely needs to be these three guys who do the standing out.
Minnesota Wild: Checks out, yeah.
Montreal Canadiens: Yeah that's where rugged defensemen usually end up these days.
Nashville Predators: I dunno, how much did you expect to get out of him this year?
New Jersey Devils: Pretty impressive weekend.
New York Islanders: Damn it was impossible to see this coming!!!!!!!!
New York Rangers: All we can ask is that they are willing to try. It's all we can ask of anyone!
Ottawa Senators: Get in line, brother.
Philadelphia Flyers: Feels like a classic "nine games and back ya go" thing. But fun nonetheless.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Love this. Long may it continue, to the point it's no longer a surprise.
San Jose Sharks: Hey, why not?
Seattle Kraken: Oh, uh, great.
St. Louis Blues: Not really the kind of headline you want on a fan blog in the preseason, is it?
Tampa Bay Lightning: Yes.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Vote of confidence, I see.
Utah [fill in the blank later]: Makes sense. Can't be mad at this decision.
Vancouver Canucks: This is just flat out not how it works.
Vegas Golden Knights: Most fun, too.
Washington Capitals: All you can really hope for at this point.
Winnipeg Jets: Sorry but if you're buying banana bread at a hockey game they should kick you out of the rink.
Play of the Weekend
Nice little first career NHL goal for Seamus Casey. Luke who?????
Gold Star Award
So far I have seen every second of the NHL's regular season. No reason that trend shouldn't continue all year. I love that it's back!
Minus of the Weekend
I was really excited to watch that NHL behind the scenes show on Amazon but every reporter who saw a screener was like "let me quote directly from the most important parts of every episode for 24 hours before the show premiers." Thank you for your service.
Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week
User "SensontheRush" has the right feeling:
Is this worth exploring for either team?
Something like:
Marner for Swayman + Poitras + Geekie
Feels pretty cursed lol.
